Finance

Here’s how much 10 big banks have cut their China growth forecasts

Workers labor in a factory of bathing suits in Jinjiang in southeast China’s Fujian province Tuesday, Sept. 28, 2021.
Feature China | Barcroft Media | Getty Images

BEIJING — Ahead of China’s quarterly growth numbers due out on Monday, most major investment banks have trimmed their economic predictions for the year and warned that abrupt power cuts and a property market slump may drag down growth.

CNBC tracked estimates for China’s full-year GDP from 13 major banks, 10 of which have cut their forecasts since August. The median prediction is growth of 8.2% this year, following the latest cuts. That’s down 0.3 percentage points from the prior median forecast.

Of the firms CNBC tracked, Japanese investment bank Nomura has the lowest full-year forecast for China at 7.7%. Southeast Asia’s largest bank, DBS, has the highest at 8.8%.

Here are banks’ forecasts for the full year:

Banks that cut China’s GDP forecast

August

  • ANZ: Cut to 8.3%, from 8.8%
  • Morgan Stanley: Cut to 7.9%, from 8.2%

September

  • Bank of America: Cut to 8%, from 8.3%
  • Citi: Cut to 8.2%, from 8.7%
  • Deutsche Bank: Cut to 8.4%, from 8.9%
  • Goldman Sachs: Cut to 7.8%, from 8.2%
  • HSBC: Cut to 8.3%, from 8.5%
  • Nomura: Cut to 7.7%, from 8.2%

October

  • Standard Chartered: Cut to 8.2%, from 8.8%
  • JPMorgan: Cut to 8.3% from 8.7%

Banks that didn’t change China forecast

  • Credit Suisse: 8.2%.
  • DBS: 8.8%.
  • UBS: 8.2%.

China’s economic landscape

Negative factors for growth have mounted this year, ranging from slower-than-expected consumer spending to disruptive floods. Adding to uncertainty is Beijing’s wide-ranging regulatory crackdown, including on indebted real estate developers and allegedly monopolistic behavior by internet tech giants.

Strong export growth remains a bright spot. China’s economic expansion is still on pace to exceed the IMF’s global growth prediction of 5.9%.

Analysts have said China is taking the opportunity this year to make painful but necessary adjustments to the economy. The official GDP target of more than 6% this year is far lower than what investment banks are betting.

— CNBC’s Gabrielle See contributed to this report.

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